The Push and Pull of Summer 2026
Oil-driven travel shifts are creating competing forces for Saratoga’s tourism economy.
The war (or stalemate) with Iran drags on. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Oil prices keep climbing. And the effects are already showing up here at home. The Wall Street Journal just reported that Americans spent $125 million more in gas yesterday than they did just a week ago.
As I mentioned in my March 14 post, Jimmy Carter on My Mind, the Iranians are very good at playing the long game with the United States. Think back to the 444-day hostage crisis in the late 1970s. Many people can say that was before their time. An 80-year-old Donald Trump doesn’t quite have that excuse.
We’re now into May. The Kentucky Derby is today. Summer is right around the corner—which means it’s time to start asking a very Saratoga question: what does this mean for our tourist season?
If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, gas prices are likely headed even higher. At some point, that leads to demand destruction where people simply drive less. And there are early signs that may already be happening:
“We are already seeing higher pump prices begin to curb discretionary driving in the U.S.,” Natasha Kaneva of JPMorgan told Axios.
So what does that mean for us?
Fewer tourists?
Or the same number of tourists, but tighter wallets once they get here? That second scenario might be even more relevant for restaurants and local businesses.
But there’s another side to this.
Higher fuel costs don’t just impact driving, they hit air travel even harder. And that could actually work in Saratoga’s favor.
If flying becomes expensive enough, some people cancel those big trips — Europe, the West Coast, international travel—and start looking closer to home. Saratoga fits that profile perfectly.
And the numbers are moving fast. Jet fuel prices have jumped from roughly $85–$90 per barrel pre-war to over $200. International airfare is up 37%, from $776 to $1,064. In Europe, Lufthansa has already canceled more than 20,000 short-haul flights to protect margins.
That’s not a small shift. That’s the kind of shift that changes behavior.
So we may be looking at two competing forces heading into the summer:
Higher gas prices discouraging discretionary driving
Higher airfare pushing people toward regional destinations like ours
Which one wins?
Even if the U.S. and Iran reach some kind of agreement soon, oil prices likely don’t snap back overnight. The Washington Post reports it could take up to six months just to clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz after the conflict ends.
In other words, whatever happens geopolitically, the economic effects are likely to linger, right through our summer season.
That makes this less of a distant geopolitical story… and more of a real-time test for Saratoga’s local economy.